South Pacific and Coral Sea TC Season - 2009/10

[Nev]

Our first South Pacific Tropical Cyclone, TC Mick, was named by Nadi around 2pm this arvo - its rapid intensification this morn taking forecasters somewhat by surprise. Located just NW of Fiji, it should pass over Fiji tonight.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 13/0247 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MICK [995HPA] CAT 1 CENTRE NEAR 13.9S 175.4E AT
130000 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT
EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT
WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE

ORAGNISATION IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 12 HRS WITH MORE
CURVATURE IN BANDING. SYSTEM LIES UNDER UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND EAST. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT PERSISTING FROM
NORTH. WARMING OF CENTRAL REGION EVIDENT. PRIMARY BAND TO EAST
CONTINUALLY PEELING OFF. CYCLONE MOVING INTO AREA OF DECREASING
SHEAR. SYSTEM STEERED BY A NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK
BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT3.0. PT=3, MET=2.5. FT
BASED ON DT, THUS T3.0/3.0/1.0/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM AND A FORECAST SOUTHEAST TRACK.

[DT-NZ]

Tropical cyclone Mick is heading toward Fiji and is expected to cross the main island of Viti Levu in the next day.

The Fiji Metrological Service says the cyclone is 546 kilometres northwest of Nadi this afternoon and is moving toward the country at around 20 kilometres per hour.

read more here.

[Nev]

Yes, forgot to adjust UTC - should pass over Fiji around midday tomorrow...

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Good modelling on behalf of the various models which picked these storms out

JohnGaul
NZThS

[bjb]

I noticed that Fiji Met has still to post a track map.
Yet they have been watching this depression since about 3rd Dec, as TD01F.
Both JTWC and Meteo France have tracking maps out today.
ECMWF were actually suggesting Mick would form Thursday or Friday, so its a day or two late.

An early start to the season.
Sure there have been late Nov. to early Dec Cyclones before.
But these are the exception rather than the rule.
Looking at the big season the North Pacific had we may be in for a busy season.

Barry

[Nev]

Yes, not sure what's up with Fiji Met (sign of the times?). On Saturday they said "there is no immediate threat of a tropical cyclone to form out of this system with its current intensity". Late Sunday morn they only gave it a 'moderate' chance of developing into a TC in the following 24 to 48 hours. Less than 2 hours after that they issued a TC Alert, but said "the Alert does not mean that this is a cyclone warning at this stage". One hour after that, they upgraded their TC alert to a TC warning and less than 2 hours later named TC Mick...

It's right on their doorstep now...

[DT-NZ]

Tropical Cyclone Gale warning remains
Publish date/time: 14/12/2009 [06:06]

read more here.

[DT-NZ]

more news here.

[DT-NZ]

updating Navy/NRL Tropical Cyclone

[DT-NZ]

Cyclone upgraded to Category 2
Monday, December 14, 2009

Last Update: (11:11) Tropical Cyclone Mick currently lies just off the West Coast of Viti Levu as high winds and rain continue to pelt most of Fiji. An hour ago the storm was 110 KM North-North-West of Nadi and continues to move South East...

Full Story - Radio Fiji.

[bjb]

I spoke to a friend in Lautoka an hour ago.
Mainly rain at this stage with wind from the North East.
A few of the resorts on the offshore islands will be exposed to this.
They will get the initial full force of the storm.

Looks like it will make the main landfall around Nadi, Lautoka or Ba.
The same area that got the floods earlier this year.

Barry

[Vertigo]

http://www.fijiwebcam.com/
great webcam showing the force of the storm at this time.. its making landfall about now.

[Nev]

I see Nadi has also finally got around to issuing a Track Map. Also developed eye a few hours ago...

[NZstorm]

Maximum gust at Nadi Airport was 58kts according to metars. 123mm fell in 2 hrs and over 200mm for the event. Barometer fell to 979hpa.

[Nev]

The Tropical Low that originated in the Gulf of Carpenteria earlier this week and crossed Cape York has formed into TC Neville this morning, draining energy from another low around the Solomon Islands which also has the potential to become a TC, maybe this weekend.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:40am EST on Thursday the 21st of January 2010

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Cape Melville to
Cooktown.

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Coen to Cape Melville,
and from Cooktown to Cape Tribulation.

At 4:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Neville, Category 1 was estimated to be
210 kilometres east of Cape Flattery and 235 kilometres east northeast of
Cooktown and was near stationary.

TROPICAL CYCLONE Neville, CATEGORY 1, is expected to remain near stationary off
the far north Queensland coast over the next 24 hours as it slowly intensifies.

GALES extending 75 kilometres out from the centre may possibly develop on the
coast between Cape Melville and Cooktown during the next 24 hours.

People between Cape Melville and Cooktown should take precautions and listen to
the next advice at 8 am. If you are unsure about precaution to be taken,
information is available from your local government or local State Emergency
Service.

People between Coen and Cape Melville, and also those between Cooktown and Cape
Tribulation should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone
threat increases. If you are unsure about the actions to be taken, information
is available from your local government or local State Emergency Service.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Neville at 4:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 14.7 degrees South 147.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... near stationary
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour and slowly INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 994 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 am EST Thursday 21 January.

[jamie.h]

yes watching the sat loop this morning i noticed that blob. i was going to investigate it but forgot to and this just reminded me. nice!

[Nev]

Ex TC Neville only retained TC status for about 6 hours, but the BoM seem reasonably confident of it redeveloping tomorrow morn...

[jamie.h]

so does it get named neville or a new name?

[Nev]

so does it get named neville or a new name?

Neville should do, unless the Solomons Low merges with it. BoM now think it may re-intensify on Friday night. Either way it looks as though it will eventually head back across the Qld coast.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:57pm EST on Thursday the 21st of January 2010

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Coen to Port Douglas.

At 4:00 pm EST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Neville, was estimated to be 190 kilometres
east northeast of Cooktown and 265 kilometres east southeast of Cape Melville
and was slow moving.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Neville is expected to remain slow moving off the far north
Queensland coast over the next 24 hours and may re-intensify on Friday night.

GALES are not expected to affect the coast within the next 24 hours, but may
develop between Coen and Port Douglas by Friday night.

People between Coen and Port Douglas should consider what action they will need
to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the actions to
be taken, information is available from your local government or local State
Emergency Service.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Neville at 4:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 14.8 degrees South 146.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... slow moving
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Thursday 21 January.

[Vertigo]

hes dead, jim. tried its hardest to get going, but got sheared away. the new cyclonic feature NE of it is looking good.

[Nev]

Hmm... fairly complex systems, but I suspect the two may end up merging with the Solomon's Low becoming the dominant player.

[Nev]

Olga intensified rapidly into a TC this morn and appears to be on a fast track towards the N Qld...

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 8:15am EST on Saturday the 23rd of January 2010

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Cape Flattery to
Cardwell.

At 7:30 am EST Tropical Cyclone Olga, Category 1 was estimated to be
540 kilometres east of Cairns and 485 kilometres northeast of Bowen
moving west southwest at 32 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Olga has formed in the Coral Sea overnight and is currently
moving westward towards the coast while intensifying. Gales are not expected on
the east Queensland coast within 24 hours, however gales may develop later
during Sunday as the centre nears the coast.

People between Cape Flattery and Cardwell should consider what action they will
need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure
about the actions to be taken, information is available from your local
government or local State Emergency Service.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Olga at 7:30 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.4 degrees South 150.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 32 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 993 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am EST Saturday 23 January.


IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 2230 UTC 22/01/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Olga

...REMARKS:
T3.0 based on shear pattern. Very clear radar signature on Willis Island radar.
System steering rapidly westward under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the
south. Interaction with the smaller low [Ex-Neville] expected during the next 12
hours.

[Vertigo]

looks to me as if its encountering similar shear to that which neville encountered. also, neville appears to be blowing up considerably the past few hours, but hard to say whether its sustainable, or whether they are indeed interacting and possibly merging - time will tell.

[Nev]

JTWC seem to think their interaction will likely hinder Olga from rapidly intensifying prior to landfall, but once they merge the increase in vorticity should help maintain the system as it tracks over Cape York and into the Gulf of Carpentaria...

[Nev]

TC Olga intensified to Cat 2 last night and looks set to make landfall somewhere between Port Douglas and Cooktown in the next few hours.

Interestingly, Ex-TC Nev, far from being dead, has managed to pull Olga's initial target of Cairns a little further north. By the same token, Olga has flung Nev right around the back of her (fujiwhara effect) and Ex-Nev, currently SW of Olga, may end up making landfall south of Townsville on Sunday night.

Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0056 UTC 24/01

...REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Olga shows good organisation with DT 3.5 based on curved band
of 0.9. PAT agrees. Westwards movement has resumed after interaction with ex
Tropical Cyclone Neville overnight.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Olga at 10:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 15.7 degrees South 146.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 17 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals