South Pacific and Coral Sea TC Season - 2009/10

[Nev]

TC Nisha, located just east of the Samoa Islands, has been named by RSMC Nadi following rapid intensification last night. May have Rarotonga and Tahiti in its sights once it recurves more to the ENE...

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 27/1628 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NISHA 06F [995HPA] CENTRE NEAR 15.7S 169.5W AT
271500 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT
EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT WINDS
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF
CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANISATION AND OUTFLOW ALOFT
REMAINS GOOD. O6F LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG A MONSOON
TROUGH IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM REMAINS IN A REGION OF
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST. A
NORTHWEST MONSOONAL SURGE CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. SST
AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS. NISHA IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST UNDER A
NORTHWEST STEERING FIELD INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR.
DVORAK BASED ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT=3.0, PT=3.0. FT BASED ON
DT, THUS T3.0/3.0/D1.0/12HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK INITIALLY AND FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION BEFORE RECURVING IT NORTHEAST.

[Nev]

TC Oli was finally named by RSMC Nadi last night, after becoming pretty well organised over the last day or two. Located about 500 km NNW of Rarotonga, he's been following in the footsteps of relatively short-lived Nisha.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 01/1454 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F [990HPA] CENTRE NEAR 12.7S 163.5W AT 011200
UTC MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT
IR/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO CENTRE ESTIMATED
40 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND
WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH PULSATING
CONVECTION OVER LLCC. CONVECTION TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON
TROUGH REMAINS DETACHED FROM LLCC BUT SLOWLY CURVING INTO IT. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO NORTH AND SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LOCATED
UNDER 250HPA DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. NORTHWEST
MONSOON SURGE TO THE NORTH. AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. SST AROUND 30C. DVORAK BASED ON WRAP OF 0.6 ON LOG 10
SPIRAL YIELDING DT3.0 PT=3.0 AND MET=3.05. FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS. CYCLONE OLI STEERED EAST SOUTHEAST BY WEST
NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CAPTURED THE
SYSTEM AND GENERALLY AGREE ON SOUTHEAST TRACK AND DEEPENS IT.

[jamie.h]

sure is a monster in size

[jamie.h]

Tahiti was bashed...or is still currently being bashed. expected sustained winds of 150km.h and gusts to 200km/h

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-paci ... its-Tahiti

[Vertigo]

great looking storm!

[Nev]

Sadly, a 40-year-old man was reported to have died after he was swept out to sea by high waves around the island of Tubuai in the Austral islands, south of Tahiti, several other people are reported to have been injured, hundreds of homes have been damaged and power and telephone lines brought down.

Yes, Oli is/was a monster all right! Although I think that statement in yesterday's Stuff article that, "today it has under gone a very rapid intensification from Category 1 to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale...", could be slightly misleading. I think Nandi has been on the ball with this one and had Oli at Cat. 3 on the BoM Scale on Wednesday (with a clearly visible eye) and a reintensified Cat. 2 on Tuesday. It has weakened considerably overnight though.

The eye is clearly visable in yesterday's vis sat-pic below...

[Nev]

TC Pat, located about 1,000km ENE of Samoa, was was named by Nandi this arvo, after steady development over the last day or two...

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 08/0221 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT CENTRE [995HPA][CAT1] LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 161.4W
AT 080000 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM AVERAGE WINDS WINDS OF
40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE AND WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. OVERALL
ORGANISATION IS GOOD. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. PAT LIES IN A DIFFLUENT
REGION ALOFT IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
0.6 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, YIELDS DT3.0,PT=3.0 AND MET 2.5. FT BASED
ON DT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY STEERED BY NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW INTO AREA OF DECRESING SHEAR.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT AND
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTHWARDS.

[Nev]

TC Pat was upgraded to Cat 2 (BoM Scale) this morn and is about 600km N of Rarotonga. Although quite a compact, seems to be little stopping her from becoming a Cat 3 tonight or tomorrow...

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 09/0150 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT CENTRE [985HPA] CAT 2 LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 159.4W
AT 090000 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 9 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. POSITION FAIR BASED
ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47
KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

LLCC LOCATED UNDER PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. PRIMARY BAND TO SOUTH
DEVELOPING WITH TOPS COOLING WHILST STILL WRAPPING AROUND LLCC.
OUTFLOW IMPROVING TO NORTH AND SOUTH. PAT LIES IN A DIFFLUENT REGION
ALOFT IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP
ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, YIELDING DT3.0. PT=3.5 AND MET=3.0. FT BASED ON MET
AND CI HELD AT 3.5. THUS, T3.0/3.5/S0.0/24HRS. SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
STEERED SOUTHEAST BY NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. A TURN TO THE
WEST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS WILL BRING THE CYCLONE INTO AREA OF
STRENGTHENING SHEAR, AFTER 48 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
A SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION IN
THE SHORT TERM BEFORE WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS.

[Vertigo]

I like the look of the westward predicted track. Will be interesting to see how it develops and transitions, and if it comes this way after that.

[Nev]

TC Pat has been sheared to death, but not before completely devastating the small tourist Cook Island of Aitutaki (pop 2,000) as a Cat 3 on the BoM Scale, with 90% of homes receiving damage mainly to rooves. Fortunately the airport, hospital and most major buildings only sustained minor damage so are functional, and communications and power is already being restored. The authorities had evacuated most all of Aitutaki's residents from low lying areas well before the storm impacted, so only a few minor injuries are being reported. There is widespread damage to trees, crops and other vegetation.

Below is a sat-pic of Pat on Wednesday evening, plus a sat-pic the following arvo showing upper-level convection completely sheared...

[Nev]

TC Rene, located just NE of Samoa, was finally named by RSMC Nadi last night after rapid intensification yesterday. It would seem like the area to the east of Samoa above the Northern Cook Islands is rife for tropical storm genesis at the moment...

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 11/1437 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE CENTRE [987HPA] [CAT 1] NEAR 12.2S 165.9W AT
111200 UTC MOVING EAST ABOUT 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT
EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE OF 45 KNOTS
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF
CENTRE.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 6 HOURS.POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW GOOD. PRIMARY BAND TO NORTH WRAPPING INTO LLCC.
OVERALL ORGANISATION IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 3 HOURS. RENE LIES
UNDER UPPER 250HPA IN LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMET ALONG AN ACTIVE MONSOON
TROUGH. SYSTEM CURRENTLY STEERED BY WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WINDS.
DVORAK BASED ON 0.7 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIEDING DT=3.0 PT=3.5
MET=3.0, THUS T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
AN EASTERLY TRACK BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH DUE TO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO EAST INTO AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

[Michael]

They think Rene now will move SW so it may affect N.Z or its remains next week?

[James]

TV1 is having a field day with the name

[Nev]

Yes, could be interesting. Would be a first if it managed to stay intact by the time it got here. Once it gets past 25°S, it becomes MetService's area of responsibility. ECMWF have Rene or its remnants ultimately being shunted off to the east by a mid-latitude trough followed by an approaching high.

At Cat 2 on the BoM Scale, Rene is now battering American Samoa's Manu’a island group, with reports of some roofing iron blown away and trees uprooted. Rene could affect American Samoa’s main island later today as it intensifies to Cat 3, with the Tonga islands also lined up for a direct hit from tonight...

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 12/1952 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE CENTRE [980HPA] CAT2 LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 168.6W
AT 121800 UTC MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST ABOUT 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR
BASED ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO
THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33
KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

COLD CONVECTION PERSISTING AND INCREASING OVER LLCC. BAND TO EAST
CONSOLIDATING AND WRAPPING AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST AND
NORTH BUT IMPROVING ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE LIES UNDER A DIVERGENT REGION.
SYSTEM STEERED BY EAST-NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
DVORAK BASED ON 1.1 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIEDING DT=4.0 PT AND MET
ALSO AGREE, THUS T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS. SST AROUND 30C. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

[Vertigo]

does anyone know the dynamics behind whether a stronger storm over warm waters might break up more aggressively when encountering cooler waters, and vice versa, a relatively weaker storm might stay together a bit more cohesively in a similar situation? i have no evidence to base this on, just thought that seemed to make some sort of sense.

[Manukau heads obs]

it sure has a large cloud sheet with it on the sat image...and moving our way...but will it make it all the way?

[jamie.h]

feel sorry for poor old tonga... they are about to get a direct hit. they have not had much luck with the ferry sinking, the tsunami and now this.

[Nev]

Not to mention the shallow Mag 6.1 quake that rocked Tonga, 95 km SSE of the capital of Nuku’alofa, on Saturday arvo - no damage though.

TC Rene has become a little more asymmetrical overnight due to exposure to strong NW'ly vertical wind shear, but but may continue to intensify in the short term with decreasing shear along its track. Currently he's at Cat 4 and has been battering Vava’u and Ha’apai in the north of Tonga since the early hours of this morning...

'Growing concern for northern Tongan islands being hit Cyclone Rene' - Radio NZ Int.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B17 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 14/2018 UTC 2010 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE CENTRE [940HPA] CAT 4 LOCATED NEAR 18.7S
1734.1W AT 141800 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR
BASED ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND VAVAU OBSERVATIONS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 90 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, WINDS
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE AND
WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE.

CDO BECOMING IRREGULAR. COLD TOPS PERSIST OVER LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD ALL
QUADRANTS. CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER AREA OF LOW SHEAR. SYSTEM STEERED
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
CIMSS INDICATES DECREASING SHEAR ALONG TRACK. DVORAK BASED ON EMBD
CNTR WITH LG SURROUND YIELDING DT=4.5. PT=4.5 MET=4.5. FT BASED ON
DT, THUS T4.5/5.5/W0.5/24HRS. SST AROUND 27C. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON SOUTHWEST TRACK WITH POSSIBLE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN THE
SHORT TERM BEFORE WEAKENING.'

[NZstorm]

I see Tonga Airport at 6pm was gusting 57kts with baro 983hpa.

[Area51]

Good breeze at Vavau
1200Z 19050KT Q999
1300Z 24049G60KT Q988
1400Z NO REPORT
1500Z 14050KT Q982
1600Z 13050G65KT Q982
1700Z 10050G70KT Q982
1800Z 18009KT Q963 (surely that can't be right?)
1900Z 34011KT Q997 (vis 800m in mist)
2000Z 33049G68KT Q972
2100Z NO REPORT
2200Z NO REPORT
2300Z 33050G70KT Q998
0000Z 33050G65KT Q987
0100Z 34045G60KT Q989
0200Z 34047G59KT Q992
0300Z 32035G50KT Q992
0400Z 32028G39KT Q993

[jamie.h]

there is nothing left of rene. it has been torn to pieces this morning

[jamie.h]

i see GFS is currently plotting 2 cyclones to form very late this week. one above fiji and the other to the east where they have been forming of recent. the thing i like about the fiji one is there is nothing weather is the tasman to stop it from moving down. ECMWF only suggesting the one cyclone to form and it is the eastern one. so something to watch. it certainly is ripe up there for storm development atm.

[Nev]

there is nothing left of rene. it has been torn to pieces this morning

Don't think so?

Rene has encountered moderate vertical wind shear and is gradually weakening, but was still at Cat 2 on the BoM Scale at 4pm today, packing mean-winds near the centre of at least 100 km/h and gusts to 130 km/h...

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B22 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 16/0258 UTC 2010 UTC.

CORRECTION TO DVORAK 24-HR TREND...
TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE CENTRE [980PA] CAT 2 LOCATED NEAR 24.0S 178.1W
AT 160000 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
GOES/MTSAT VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
IN THE NORTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE.

LLCC SHEARED 44NM WEST FROM DG EDGE. CYCLONE STILL MOVING INTO
STRONGER SHEAR AND COOLER SST REGION. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHWEST UNDER A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST STEERING
REGIME. DVORAK BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN, YIELDING A DT3.0. PT=3.0
MET=3.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T3.0/3.5/W2.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE ON A GENERAL SOUTHWEST TRACK AND FURTHER WEAKENING.

[jamie.h]

oh yes sorry Nev i should have been more clear.. i was referring to satellite images where it was torn apart and had no structure left.

[Vertigo]

LLCC fully exposed now, no deep convection apparent. Hes all but dead. But still a nice swirl, and on his way down this way now.